General Election 2024

[Mark of Carnage]

Oct 6, 2024 19:52:17 GMT texaspete said:

Pensioners have seen the state pension increases by 19% in just two years

In real terms the increase over the last two years was only 1.8% so I do not think pensioners have been raking it in and I would say far from it as that increase is negligible in real terms.

Sure the triple lock raised the state pension and pension credit by around 19% but not in real terms. That is because of the way the triple lock is set up.

The rise occurs in the April and it is the best of 1. 2.5%, 2. the September of the year before's CPI 3. average wages for the May to June period of the year before.

For April 2023 CPI was 10.1% in September 2022 and average earnings in May/June 2022 were 5.5% so the April 2023 rise was 10.1% which is an inflation figure so in real terms there was in effect no increase to the State Pension and Pension Credit as the real terms value of the award did not change and pensioners were no better off than they were the year before.

For April 2024 CPI was 6.7% in September 2023 and average earnings in May/June 2023 were 8.5% so the April 2024 rise was 8.5% which is a real terms increase to the State Pension and Pension Credit of 1.8% i.e the difference between the inflation rate and the actual increase.

For April 2025 CPI has not yet been announced for September 2024 but it is not expected to be much higher than the 3.11% rate in August 2024. Average wages for May/June 2024 were 4% so the April 2025 rise is likely to be 4% which is likely to be a real terms increase to the State Pension and Pension Credit of around 1.9% i.e the difference between the probable inflation rate and the actual increase.

If you go back just one more year to April 2022, the triple lock was suspended and the May/June 2021 figure of 8.6% was ignored in favour of the CPI rate for September 2021 of 3.1% so in real terms there was in effect no increase to the State Pension and Pension Credit as the real terms value of the award did not change and pensioners were no better off than they were the year before. Had it been done under the triple lock they would have been a whopping 5.5% better off in real terms.

So I think it misleading to say in an unqualified way that state pensions went up 19% in two years when in real terms they only went up 1.8% in those two years. Indeed they have only gone up in real terms by 1.8% in all in the last 3 years!

I know everyone is struggling to make ends meet these days but I think we should stop picking on pensioners. To be frank I don't see much difference for pensioners between no increase and a mere 1.8% increase over the last 2 to 3 years. It is hardly a cash cow for them and I don't think we should begrudge them it.

[texaspete]

Oct 7, 2024 22:34:09 GMT Mark of Carnage said:

In real terms the increase over the last two years was only 1.8% so I do not think pensioners have been raking it in and I would say far from it as that increase is negligible in real terms.

The CPI index in April 2022 was 120.0.
The CPI index in April 2024 was 133.5.

That’s an 11.25% inflation rate over the two years meaning that the state pension increased by 7% in real terms between April 2022 and April 2024.

www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7bt/mm23

The real increase for 2024/25 as a whole will likely be a lot higher than that because inflation has been falling: the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast that the price level in 2024/25 will be 7% higher than the price level in 2022/23 meaning a pension that is 11% higher in real terms.

Oct 7, 2024 22:34:09 GMT Mark of Carnage said:

I know everyone is struggling to make ends meet these days but I think we should stop picking on pensioners

I disagree that it is “picking on pensioners” - the government is retaining the Triple Lock guarantees that the state pension will continue to increase by more then both inflation and average earnings as it has done for a long time.

In any case, my point was that pensioners will still enjoy record high income from the state in 2024/25 despite the loss of the Winter Fuel Payment for those not in the poorest 20%. I understand the annoyance of seeing £200 of an increase in your income unexpectedly removed but the pretence that pensioners will be worse off than even last winter and that thousands will die as a result is grating, especially when the average pensioner enjoys a higher standard of living than the average family these days.

[Mark of Carnage]

Oct 8, 2024 6:25:34 GMT texaspete said:

Oct 7, 2024 22:34:09 GMT Mark of Carnage said:

In real terms the increase over the last two years was only 1.8% so I do not think pensioners have been raking it in and I would say far from it as that increase is negligible in real terms.

The CPI index in April 2022 was 120.0.
The CPI index in April 2024 was 133.5.

That’s an 11.25% inflation rate over the two years meaning that the state pension increased by 7% in real terms between April 2022 and April 2024.

www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7bt/mm23

The real increase for 2024/25 as a whole will likely be a lot higher than that because inflation has been falling: the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast that the price level in 2024/25 will be 7% higher than the price level in 2022/23 meaning a pension that is 11% higher in real terms.

Oct 7, 2024 22:34:09 GMT Mark of Carnage said:

I know everyone is struggling to make ends meet these days but I think we should stop picking on pensioners

I disagree that it is “picking on pensioners” - the government is retaining the Triple Lock guarantees that the state pension will continue to increase by more then both inflation and average earnings as it has done for a long time.

In any case, my point was that pensioners will still enjoy record high income from the state in 2024/25 despite the loss of the Winter Fuel Payment for those not in the poorest 20%. I understand the annoyance of seeing £200 of an increase in your income unexpectedly removed but the pretence that pensioners will be worse off than even last winter and that thousands will die as a result is grating, especially when the average pensioner enjoys a higher standard of living than the average family these days.

The figures used in the triple lock are fixed at the highest of the CPI rate in the previous September, average earnings for the previous May/June and 2.5%. For state pensions to increase by 7% in April 2025 CPI would have rise to 7% in the September ONS announcement and that is not thought to be likely. Economists are anticipating only a modest rise from the August figure of 3.11% meaning pensions are expected to rise in April 2025 by the 4% earnings average figure from May/June 2024. CPI inflation is considered a zero increased in real terms so a 4% increase is only likely to be around a 0.9% increase in real terms not a 7% increase.

Obviously the triple lock does not guarantee that the state pension will rise by more than both inflation and average earnings. The rules simply don't allow for that. It wouldn't be a triple lock if they did. That only happens when both are under 2.5%. Since it started in 2012 the triple lock has raised the pension under the 2.5% rule 4 times, the CPI rule 4 times and average earnings 4 times so 2/3 of the time it has not gone up higher than inflation and earnings. To say anything else is wrong and misleading.

[texaspete]

Oct 8, 2024 8:42:19 GMT Mark of Carnage said:

Since it started in 2012 the triple lock has raised the pension under the 2.5% rule 4 times, the CPI rule 4 times and average earnings 4 times so 2/3 of the time it has not gone up higher than inflation and earnings. To say anything else is wrong and misleading.

Since April 2010:
Prices have gone up by 50%
Average weekly earnings have gone up by 52%
The state pension has gone up by 74%

Anyway, let’s leave it there, it’s clear we’re not going to agree

[Mark of Carnage]

Oct 8, 2024 18:51:31 GMT texaspete said:

Oct 8, 2024 8:42:19 GMT Mark of Carnage said:

Since it started in 2012 the triple lock has raised the pension under the 2.5% rule 4 times, the CPI rule 4 times and average earnings 4 times so 2/3 of the time it has not gone up higher than inflation and earnings. To say anything else is wrong and misleading.

Since April 2010:
Prices have gone up by 50%
Average weekly earnings have gone up by 52%
The state pension has gone up by 74%

Anyway, let’s leave it there, it’s clear we’re not going to agree

I agree with you Pete that working age people have faired worse than pensioners since 2010. I wasn't engaging with that comparison and just thought you were over egging it about how well pensioners have done from the triple lock over the past 2 years which with respect was your original assertion.

Am sure we all would like to see all people, pensioners, working age and children doing well and having a decent quality of life. I think it's good that we care enough to debate this with the Autumn budget looming and I am keen to see how the Chancellor approaches this on 30th October. Hopefully in a responsible way that addresses the polarisation of wealth, that has worsened since 2010, in a meaningful way rather than continue with talk of tough decisions and the setting up of work groups to just talk about it.

[barry]

Starmer with another lie, unless his uncle was Argentinian he certainly wasn’t torpedoed in the Falkland war. And loved Nandy’s car crash interview with Kate Burley yesterday trying to justify free tickets. This lot are so bad.

That’s before he gives away a strategic military outpost to his mate Phillipe Sands that I’m sure the Chinese will be delighted with.

[cambsno]

Oct 10, 2024 5:59:34 GMT barry said:

Starmer with another lie, unless his uncle was Argentinian he certainly wasn’t torpedoed in the Falkland war. And loved Nandy’s car crash interview with Kate Burley yesterday trying to justify free tickets. This lot are so bad.

That’s before he gives away a strategic military outpost to his mate Phillipe Sands that I’m sure the Chinese will be delighted with.

Really? His uncle was bombed. Bomb, torpedo, pretty much the same thing, and an event that happened 40 years ago and like any family history, probably changes slightly. Jeez, what a pathetic thing to accuse him of lying of. It's like Mullin saying his best goal was with his right foot when it was actually his left. For years I thought my great uncle was killed by a German fighter, turned out to be anti aircraft fire. Was my dad lying to me?

Don't let the facts get in the way of ignorance or stupidity - tories started negations to give that back 2 years ago

[MartinL]

Oct 10, 2024 5:59:34 GMT barry said:

Starmer with another lie, unless his uncle was Argentinian he certainly wasn’t torpedoed in the Falkland war. And loved Nandy’s car crash interview with Kate Burley yesterday trying to justify free tickets. This lot are so bad.

That’s before he gives away a strategic military outpost to his mate Phillipe Sands that I’m sure the Chinese will be delighted with.

You lost- get over it.
Have you changed your username so we don’t realise who you really are?

[Tom Shaw's Fist of Rage]

"barry" sounds like the perfect username for someone who spends all day obsessed with Kier.

[lesj]

Oct 10, 2024 11:52:05 GMT MartinL said:

Oct 10, 2024 5:59:34 GMT barry said:

Starmer with another lie, unless his uncle was Argentinian he certainly wasn’t torpedoed in the Falkland war. And loved Nandy’s car crash interview with Kate Burley yesterday trying to justify free tickets. This lot are so bad.

That’s before he gives away a strategic military outpost to his mate Phillipe Sands that I’m sure the Chinese will be delighted with.

You lost- get over it.
Have you changed your username so we don’t realise who you really are?

[/b]

Well, ofter checking up have found he is listed as btb

What a surprise !

[barry]

Oct 10, 2024 12:39:23 GMT lesj said:

Oct 10, 2024 11:52:05 GMT MartinL said:

You lost- get over it.
Have you changed your username so we don’t realise who you really are?

[/b]

Well, ofter checking up have found he is listed as btb

What a surprise ![/quote]


Stalker. But you keep on backing the compulsive liar and free loader. Sounds like he’s a cloned himself from Boris who he accused of being exactly the same.

[Mark of Carnage]

How do you feel Barry about your your right wing pals fecking up and pitching for a Hobsons choice of two right wingers Badenoch and Jenrick, to carry on splitting the populist right vote between whichever right winger they want, likely Badenoch I guess, for the next GE and letting Starmer win the next GE again because your lot can't make their mind up between the Tories or Farage?

Labour didn't so much win the GE. The Conservatives lost it, and it's people like you who made that happen.

[barry]

Oct 10, 2024 16:57:12 GMT Mark of Carnage said:

How do you feel Barry about your your right wing pals fecking up and pitching for a Hobsons choice of two right wingers Badenoch and Jenrick, to carry on splitting the populist right vote between whichever right winger they want, likely Badenoch I guess, for the next GE and letting Starmer win the next GE again because your lot can't make their mind up between the Tories or Farage?

Labour didn't so much win the GE. The Conservatives lost it, and it's people like you who made that happen.

That’s a bit of an assumption. But I think I have already predicted that Labour will balls things up as usual and Reform will win the next election. Will be interesting how (also a nutter) Badenoch tries to capture that vote instead, but I don’t fancy her chances. Jenrick is also pretty useless.

How did I make anything happen? One vote in a Lib Dem constituency.

[MartinL]

Oct 10, 2024 17:23:29 GMT barry said:

Oct 10, 2024 16:57:12 GMT Mark of Carnage said:

How do you feel Barry about your your right wing pals fecking up and pitching for a Hobsons choice of two right wingers Badenoch and Jenrick, to carry on splitting the populist right vote between whichever right winger they want, likely Badenoch I guess, for the next GE and letting Starmer win the next GE again because your lot can't make their mind up between the Tories or Farage?

Labour didn't so much win the GE. The Conservatives lost it, and it's people like you who made that happen.

That’s a bit of an assumption. But I think I have already predicted that Labour will balls things up as usual and Reform will win the next election. Will be interesting how (also a nutter) Badenoch tries to capture that vote instead, but I don’t fancy her chances. Jenrick is also pretty useless.

How did I make anything happen? One vote in a Lib Dem constituency.

Starmer got a very long way to get anywhere near the levels of uselessness of the last 14 years!
And if the grifter ever got into power then you will see new levels of crap poppet.
It’s sad that people like you can’t see Farridge for what he is but your obvious support for him shows exactly what type of person you are…

[barry]

Oct 10, 2024 18:03:31 GMT MartinL said:

Oct 10, 2024 17:23:29 GMT barry said:

That’s a bit of an assumption. But I think I have already predicted that Labour will balls things up as usual and Reform will win the next election. Will be interesting how (also a nutter) Badenoch tries to capture that vote instead, but I don’t fancy her chances. Jenrick is also pretty useless.

How did I make anything happen? One vote in a Lib Dem constituency.

Starmer got a very long way to get anywhere near the levels of uselessness of the last 14 years!
And if the grifter ever got into power then you will see new levels of crap poppet.
It’s sad that people like you can’t see Farridge for what he is but your obvious support for him shows exactly what type of person you are…

If you think Liverpool will win does that make you a scouser?