danielcufc
First team star
Posts: 8,333
Favourite CUFC player: Dion Dublin
Favourite CUFC match: Peterborough 1, Cambridge 5 London Road 3.1.1989
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Post by danielcufc on Apr 22, 2024 11:03:38 GMT
I remember a similar thing a couple of seasons ago when Bristol Rovers pumped someone on the last day to get promoted on goal difference. I'm sure it was Northampton who missed out as a result and they may have complained to the FA about Rovers opposition fielding kids. It was Scunthorpe. They played a 17 year old on debut in goal and won 7-0 to overhaul Northampton on GD. The EFL did nothing about it.
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Post by zx10racer22 on Apr 22, 2024 11:30:19 GMT
I've just noticed that we're Wycombe's 4th away game in 10 days, after long trips to Shrewsbury, Port Vale and Carlisle. That means exactly 1,200 miles clocked on the team coach when they arrive at the Abbey tomorrow. They've also won all three of those games, so they've been working hard. We really have no excuses. Aside from them being significantly better than us, of course. So are Barnsley, Oxford, Blackpool and Wigan, but we have beaten all of those teams this season. A point won't be a disaster as it will turn the Vale game into a "need a point" rather than "must win" but we cannot fall into the trap of assuming results will go our way elsewhere. Nothing is a given in the final week and we need to assume Cheltenham will win both games and Burton will win against Fleetwood, so it's up to us to get the two points we need. If Cheltenham don't get the win on Tuesday, then great, but I don't want to be relying on others. Two points. We need to do it ourselves. And to be fair, if we play like we did on Saturday, there is every chance we can win on Tuesday because it was very decent performance. A calmer finish from Bonne and a slightly less-rash charge out from Mannion and we could have really screwed Derby's season. Small margins.
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malotru
Youth team star
Posts: 1,386
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Post by malotru on Apr 22, 2024 11:52:00 GMT
I remember a similar thing a couple of seasons ago when Bristol Rovers pumped someone on the last day to get promoted on goal difference. I'm sure it was Northampton who missed out as a result and they may have complained to the FA about Rovers opposition fielding kids. It was Scunthorpe. They played a 17 year old on debut in goal and won 7-0 to overhaul Northampton on GD. The EFL did nothing about it. Scunthorpe were also really really bad that season so I guess the EFL had a very hard job to prove they didn’t care and rolled over to Brovers.
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malotru
Youth team star
Posts: 1,386
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Post by malotru on Apr 22, 2024 11:58:04 GMT
I will be very surprised if we pick up any more points. We will limp to safety on the virtue of the teams below us being marginally worse. Remarkably, it seems that yet again we will find ourselves narrowly avoiding relegation with a meagre total of 46 points. If we do guarantee safety on Tuesday due to Pish doing us a favour then we haven’t limped to safety. What’s happened is that the finish line was brought back to us out of sheer pity where we are lying on the floor with absolutely nothing left in the tank.
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Post by El Goodo on Apr 22, 2024 12:19:10 GMT
There is a kind of beauty to the fact that the 6 points we allowed Cheltenham to take against us are the only reason they can still catch us. Even drawing 1 of those 2 games would have seen them relegated along with Vale at the weekend.
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Post by cufcok on Apr 22, 2024 12:52:26 GMT
Forget Peterboring and Cheltenham , Lets make the ground rock tomorrow night , Come on you Ussssssssssssss .
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Post by mike_CUFC on Apr 22, 2024 13:22:41 GMT
There is a kind of beauty to the fact that the 6 points we allowed Cheltenham to take against us are the only reason they can still catch us. Even drawing 1 of those 2 games would have seen them relegated along with Vale at the weekend. Think you've said that a few times through the season EG, how we managed to gift Cheltenham 6 points really is shocking. Just have to hope it doesn't come back to bite us!
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belly77
Reserve team substitute
Posts: 2,722
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Post by belly77 on Apr 22, 2024 13:23:05 GMT
Why is everyone so optimistic that we are safe? We are Cambridge United, we rode our luck last season, the footballing gods have been too kind to us lately.
You can tell I'm a glass half empty kind of guy.
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Tom Shaw's Fist of Rage
Fans' favourite
Posts: 10,846
Favourite CUFC match: Promotion Final vs Gateshead 2014
Member is Online
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Post by Tom Shaw's Fist of Rage on Apr 22, 2024 13:29:31 GMT
Why is everyone so optimistic that we are safe? We are Cambridge United, we rode our luck last season, the footballing gods have been too kind to us lately. You can tell I'm a glass half empty kind of guy. It's currently a 4% chance according to the bookies, and I imagine even that is inflated as supposedly half the money has gone on us to go down. I know it's not the same question but about a third have gone for the pessimistic option here which suggests that on the whole we are not so confident even looking at the statistical wisdom!
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Post by El Goodo on Apr 22, 2024 13:31:27 GMT
Why is everyone so optimistic that we are safe? We are Cambridge United, we rode our luck last season, the footballing gods have been too kind to us lately. You can tell I'm a glass half empty kind of guy. It's not optimisim that we're safe, it's realism. That doesn't we definitely are or that anyone's taking anything for granted or that the worst or less likely events can't or won't happen, but an objective reading of the situation has us a lot more likely to stay up than not. That obviously changes if Cheltenham win tomorrow and we lose, but even then the odds, while worse than now, would still be in our favour. Anyone who says they're truly not worried about relegation at this point I'd suggest is at worst lying and at best burnishing the truth somewhat, but we are less likely to go down from here than we are to stay up.
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Post by mike_CUFC on Apr 22, 2024 13:31:50 GMT
If Burton weren't so spawny i'd be tempted with them at 10/1 to go down given they have only 1 game left and a worse GD than us.
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Post by El Goodo on Apr 22, 2024 13:42:08 GMT
Think you've said that a few times through the season EG Probably. I am very boring
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malotru
Youth team star
Posts: 1,386
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Post by malotru on Apr 22, 2024 13:45:26 GMT
Out of interest does anyone know/remember what the odds of us going down just before the final game against FGR last season? Or just before the midweek Burton game?
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Post by El Goodo on Apr 22, 2024 13:53:02 GMT
Out of interest does anyone know/remember what the odds of us going down just before the final game against FGR last season? Or just before the midweek Burton game? From a couple of bookies, Cambridge win, Exeter win or draw & Burton win or draw the odds are: Betfair 3.37 = 29.6% chance of us staying up Skybet 2.37 = 42.1% chance of us staying up A 30% minimum chance of us staying up in a 3 horse race isn't as bleak as people might think after last night. Odds of relegation; Morecambe 1/8 United 1/5 MK Dons 13/8 Paddy Power odds.
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Post by zx10racer22 on Apr 22, 2024 13:59:36 GMT
I remember we were 1/10 to get relegated after the defeat to MK Dons on 11 March. That was two games before the Port Vale result which kickstarted the great escape.
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