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Post by jimbo8082 on May 21, 2019 16:06:39 GMT
Anyone going to vote this week? Just interest on people's thoughts. I know some might not bother as we are going to leave the EU anyway. I'm of the firm opinion that we should vote just because democracy. What're your thoughts? 'we are going to leave the EU anyway' When was that decided? Well who knows. Pehaps it won't happen. However both main parties state it is their policy that they will uphold the referendum result. I would like to add that I want to remain.
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Mark of Carnage
Reserve team substitute
Responsibility, Resilience, Respect
Posts: 2,558
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Post by Mark of Carnage on May 21, 2019 16:38:08 GMT
If what the Yougov poll 8/5 to 17/5 is repeated then our 7 MEPs will be: 3 brexit 2 Libdems 1 labour 1 green The contested seats are shown in the chart below. Because of the way the d'Hondt PR system works the contest for the 7th seat will be the one to watch to see who has the highest tally of 25% of the brexit party vote, 100% of the conservative vote and 100% of the green vote. That will be a close vote and there is a definite case for Libdem and labour voters tactically voting green to edge out brexit party and conservatives. Complicated by Libdems and labour fighting over a 2nd seat for themselves. As it stands though it looks likely libdems will take that 2nd seat. As a pro remain Labour supporter i'm anguishing about whether want stop a swivel eyed brexiteer by electing a swivel eyed greeny remainer or to pitch for a 2nd labour seat. My inclination is to stick with Labour in part because don't want to see the labour vote eroded any more. i'm a stranger to voting dilemmas but it seems most people i know are struggling with this one. Who would have predicted just a few years ago that Labour and Conservative could be ever be languishing in 3rd and 5th place in any election polls.
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moose
Youth team substitute
Posts: 558
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Post by moose on May 23, 2019 8:05:40 GMT
I would ordinarily vote Labour, but voted Lib Dem today.
My biggest concern at the moment though is the way that the European election results will be interpreted. Votes for the Brexit Party are clear enough - Brexit at any price, including leaving without a deal (though Farage has done well by focusing people’s anger on MPs, rather than coherently outlining the detail of what a post-Brexit no-deal Britain looks like). But the Remain vote is severely fragmented between Remain-supporting Labour voters, Lib Dem, Greens and Change UK. Individually, the Brexit Party will probably get 20% more than each of them, but when looked at collectively (Leave v Remain), I think the position will be much closer (notwithstanding Leave-voting Tories).
What I don’t want is for a self-interested Tory leadership candidate to misrepresent the public sentiment and try to use it as a foundation for moving Government position further to the right.
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cambcam
Reserve team substitute
Posts: 2,590
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Post by cambcam on May 23, 2019 11:01:16 GMT
I would ordinarily vote Labour, but voted Lib Dem today. My biggest concern at the moment though is the way that the European election results will be interpreted. Votes for the Brexit Party are clear enough - Brexit at any price, including leaving without a deal (though Farage has done well by focusing people’s anger on MPs, rather than coherently outlining the detail of what a post-Brexit no-deal Britain looks like). But the Remain vote is severely fragmented between Remain-supporting Labour voters, Lib Dem, Greens and Change UK. Individually, the Brexit Party will probably get 20% more than each of them, but when looked at collectively (Leave v Remain), I think the position will be much closer (notwithstanding Leave-voting Tories). What I don’t want is for a self-interested Tory leadership candidate to misrepresent the public sentiment and try to use it as a foundation for moving Government position further to the right. A well reasoned post but disagree on once fundamental point - “Votes for the Brexit Party are clear enough - Brexit at any price” Essentially, I (and most Brexit voting people I know at least) voted Leave on the understanding we would leave on WTO should no better deal be negotiated. We didn’t want to leave on WTO, but within the vote of Leave, handed Parliament the responsibility of negotiating the best deal possible. The basic concept of WTO as a default should have seen businesses preparing for that from the start, and any fear of WTO should have seen Parliament as a whole working together. T May’s diabolical handling of this has only served as an opportunity for MP’s to seize control and steer us away from Brexit which they overall never wanted to happen. A Brexit vote is not a “leave at all costs vote”. It is a protest vote against every single MP that didn’t work to broker a deal whilst accepting we’d go WTO if they didn’t. My grey area in my Leave vote was uncertainty about having a government with the ability to make Brexit work. Evidently we don’t have and there is no sign we are likely to have one at any time soon either. I doubt any MP deliberately steering this away from Leave will have the slightest bit of interest in anyone’s view other than their own, and brush aside “Brexit” votes in their dangerously dismissive manner. On that basis, it will be very important to stop the EU MEP’s being a collection of sycophants. Good luck Nigel and long may you be a pain in their arse.
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lesj
Reserve team substitute
Posts: 2,590
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Post by lesj on May 23, 2019 14:11:28 GMT
For the first time in 50 years I am not voting to day.
I would normally vote LibDems, but I voted to leave not to remain
Cannot vote Farage. He championed UKIP now he's deserted them and gone Brexit .
Why the need for the Brexit party as well as UKIP . All either of them stand for is Brexit
We need a party that has real policies.
I wouldn't mind betting as soon as this is over Farage will jump ship yet again.
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Post by furiousgeorge on May 23, 2019 14:12:26 GMT
"The basic concept of WTO as a default should have seen businesses preparing for that from the start"
Yes, WTO is such a good trading environment, precisely 0 countries in the world trade solely on that basis.
Just because your and your pals voted to destroy the UK doesnt mean the rest of the Leave vote did. This is why Brexit was such an ill-defined and quite frankly stupid idea to have a binary vote with a thousand undefined variants of Leave.
Still im sure the German car manufacturers will be beating the door down to give us a good deal.
Any time now.
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cambcam
Reserve team substitute
Posts: 2,590
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Post by cambcam on May 23, 2019 15:17:19 GMT
If voting to leave has damaged the UK as a by-product of mistakenly thinking a competent and committed government might make this work, then I’m guilty as charged. It doesn’t change the fundamental reasons for wanting to leave the EU in the first place. The sad thing now is whatever happens it’s a car crash. The EU has only one direction of travel and using the debacle of Brexit to strengthen its position is not going to address the issues that brought us here in the first place. For all the superior talk from the EU and the Remainers, something has gone horribly wrong and there are no signs of solutions. Whatever the reasons, there’ll be a new flag flying in Brussels next week:
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Post by furiousgeorge on May 23, 2019 15:44:41 GMT
If voting to leave has damaged the UK as a by-product of mistakenly thinking a competent and committed government might make this work, then I’m guilty as charged. It doesn’t change the fundamental reasons for wanting to leave the EU in the first place. The sad thing now is whatever happens it’s a car crash. The EU has only one direction of travel and using the debacle of Brexit to strengthen its position is not going to address the issues that brought us here in the first place. For all the superior talk from the EU and the Remainers, something has gone horribly wrong and there are no signs of solutions. Whatever the reasons, there’ll be a new flag flying in Brussels next week: View AttachmentHes already there, occaisionally, when he can arsed. Just like the last 20 years when hes done nothing to help Britain, yet happy to take the money. When hes not being bankrolled by super rich people, and flying around on a private jet that is. Socking it to the elites, indeed.
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Post by pappasmurf on May 23, 2019 16:26:58 GMT
I suspect that the Brexit Party has got an even bigger share of the poll than predicted.
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Post by Tom Shaw's Fist of Rage on May 23, 2019 18:43:43 GMT
If voting to leave has damaged the UK as a by-product of mistakenly thinking a competent and committed government might make this work, then I’m guilty as charged. It doesn’t change the fundamental reasons for wanting to leave the EU in the first place. The sad thing now is whatever happens it’s a car crash. The EU has only one direction of travel and using the debacle of Brexit to strengthen its position is not going to address the issues that brought us here in the first place. For all the superior talk from the EU and the Remainers, something has gone horribly wrong and there are no signs of solutions. Whatever the reasons, there’ll be a new flag flying in Brussels next week: View AttachmentHes already there, occaisionally, when he can arsed. Just like the last 20 years when hes done nothing to help Britain, yet happy to take the money. When hes not being bankrolled by super rich people, and flying around on a private jet that is. Socking it to the elites, indeed. You have to admire his ability to convince people he's different to other politicians despite being as self-serving as the rest (if not more) & not being particularly subtle about it. Also the ability to convince people he's on their side and yet actively looking to damage the lives of many of his core voters. Each to their own though.
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moose
Youth team substitute
Posts: 558
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Post by moose on May 23, 2019 23:17:46 GMT
I would ordinarily vote Labour, but voted Lib Dem today. My biggest concern at the moment though is the way that the European election results will be interpreted. Votes for the Brexit Party are clear enough - Brexit at any price, including leaving without a deal (though Farage has done well by focusing people’s anger on MPs, rather than coherently outlining the detail of what a post-Brexit no-deal Britain looks like). But the Remain vote is severely fragmented between Remain-supporting Labour voters, Lib Dem, Greens and Change UK. Individually, the Brexit Party will probably get 20% more than each of them, but when looked at collectively (Leave v Remain), I think the position will be much closer (notwithstanding Leave-voting Tories). What I don’t want is for a self-interested Tory leadership candidate to misrepresent the public sentiment and try to use it as a foundation for moving Government position further to the right. A well reasoned post but disagree on once fundamental point - “Votes for the Brexit Party are clear enough - Brexit at any price” Essentially, I (and most Brexit voting people I know at least) voted Leave on the understanding we would leave on WTO should no better deal be negotiated. We didn’t want to leave on WTO, but within the vote of Leave, handed Parliament the responsibility of negotiating the best deal possible. The basic concept of WTO as a default should have seen businesses preparing for that from the start, and any fear of WTO should have seen Parliament as a whole working together. T May’s diabolical handling of this has only served as an opportunity for MP’s to seize control and steer us away from Brexit which they overall never wanted to happen. A Brexit vote is not a “leave at all costs vote”. It is a protest vote against every single MP that didn’t work to broker a deal whilst accepting we’d go WTO if they didn’t. My grey area in my Leave vote was uncertainty about having a government with the ability to make Brexit work. Evidently we don’t have and there is no sign we are likely to have one at any time soon either. I doubt any MP deliberately steering this away from Leave will have the slightest bit of interest in anyone’s view other than their own, and brush aside “Brexit” votes in their dangerously dismissive manner. On that basis, it will be very important to stop the EU MEP’s being a collection of sycophants. Good luck Nigel and long may you be a pain in their arse. If you and your friends did contemplate leaving on WTO terms in a worst-case scenario, you gave the issue more consideration than most Brexiteers did. Here is a link to what the ‘Vote Leave’ campaign considers to be the key pre-Brexit speeches: www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/key_speeches_interviews_and_op_eds.htmlYou’d be hard pressed to conclude from those that people were prepared for WTO terms. I’ve re-read your post a few times, but I don’t really see what your objection to the “Brexit at any cost line” is. The point I was making is that people who are voting for the Brexit Party today have heard all of the financial projections about the impact of Brexit on the economy. They must therefore consider the cost to be a price worth paying (though I recognise that they will also have considered other factors). Obviously, they might also simply not believe the forecasts, but if those forecasts do prove right, the “I didn’t believe the forecasts at the time” line won’t wash. There is a strange phenomenon with Farage: his parties succeed precisely because they they are not in government. He complains about the present and what should have happened in the past without offering detailed plans for the future. He can blithely say “we should be prepared to walk away on WTO terms”, but he doesn’t say to people “that means that the financial services sector (for example), which forms a major part of this country’s revenue, will take a significant hit”. Instead, he continues to construct a narrative focussed on ‘betrayal’ and ‘lack of democracy’, despite the fact there is no clear consensus of Brexit means in practice. Farage can continue to be a “pain in the arse” because he is a party of one. He ditched UKIP as soon as they reached a critical mass that meant that they would no longer allow him to call all the shots.
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cambcam
Reserve team substitute
Posts: 2,590
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Post by cambcam on May 24, 2019 8:23:20 GMT
A well reasoned post but disagree on once fundamental point - “Votes for the Brexit Party are clear enough - Brexit at any price” Essentially, I (and most Brexit voting people I know at least) voted Leave on the understanding we would leave on WTO should no better deal be negotiated. We didn’t want to leave on WTO, but within the vote of Leave, handed Parliament the responsibility of negotiating the best deal possible. The basic concept of WTO as a default should have seen businesses preparing for that from the start, and any fear of WTO should have seen Parliament as a whole working together. T May’s diabolical handling of this has only served as an opportunity for MP’s to seize control and steer us away from Brexit which they overall never wanted to happen. A Brexit vote is not a “leave at all costs vote”. It is a protest vote against every single MP that didn’t work to broker a deal whilst accepting we’d go WTO if they didn’t. My grey area in my Leave vote was uncertainty about having a government with the ability to make Brexit work. Evidently we don’t have and there is no sign we are likely to have one at any time soon either. I doubt any MP deliberately steering this away from Leave will have the slightest bit of interest in anyone’s view other than their own, and brush aside “Brexit” votes in their dangerously dismissive manner. On that basis, it will be very important to stop the EU MEP’s being a collection of sycophants. Good luck Nigel and long may you be a pain in their arse. If you and your friends did contemplate leaving on WTO terms in a worst-case scenario, you gave the issue more consideration than most Brexiteers did. Here is a link to what the ‘Vote Leave’ campaign considers to be the key pre-Brexit speeches: www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/key_speeches_interviews_and_op_eds.htmlYou’d be hard pressed to conclude from those that people were prepared for WTO terms. I’ve re-read your post a few times, but I don’t really see what your objection to the “Brexit at any cost line” is. The point I was making is that people who are voting for the Brexit Party today have heard all of the financial projections about the impact of Brexit on the economy. They must therefore consider the cost to be a price worth paying (though I recognise that they will also have considered other factors). Obviously, they might also simply not believe the forecasts, but if those forecasts do prove right, the “I didn’t believe the forecasts at the time” line won’t wash. There is a strange phenomenon with Farage: his parties succeed precisely because they they are not in government. He complains about the present and what should have happened in the past without offering detailed plans for the future. He can blithely say “we should be prepared to walk away on WTO terms”, but he doesn’t say to people “that means that the financial services sector (for example), which forms a major part of this country’s revenue, will take a significant hit”. Instead, he continues to construct a narrative focussed on ‘betrayal’ and ‘lack of democracy’, despite the fact there is no clear consensus of Brexit means in practice. Farage can continue to be a “pain in the arse” because he is a party of one. He ditched UKIP as soon as they reached a critical mass that meant that they would no longer allow him to call all the shots. I do think there are a few things there that need separating but do understand why some think they shouldn’t be. The EU and the Remainers have done an excellent job and the credibility of a Leave vote/WTO etc has been all but destroyed by the events of the last couple of years. That said, the danger for the EU/Remain is that the mess of a Brexit doesn’t add anything to the merits of the EU. The reasons people wanted out remain unchanged and the EU will never be able do do anything to address that given it’s fundamental make up and principles. It’s dangerous in the long term for the EU to be blinkered or use the Brexit debacle as a smokescreen. A Brexit vote now is as much a statement against the EU as it is anything else. It’s difficult to believe any sane Remainer that voted Green this time would honestly want the Greens in power, any more than a sane Brexiteer would want Farage running the show either. People are angry, this is an opportunity to protest, it’s what people do. Apart from the impossible nutcases on both sides people are generally reasonable. It’s why come the GE we’ll all most likely revert to type. So on Farage, it’s not his meatheads and bigots the EU and Remainers need to worry about. That lot are beyond reason. It’s the votes he’s getting from people that are well aware he’s self-serving, that know he is rich, and quite frankly know ‘his game’ that are their biggest problem. Understanding the causes of frustration and resentment are much more important than blaming (or even complimenting) Farage on his ability to manipulate that. You have to do that first before you do anything else. The next part is doing something about that, which does not include unpleasant slurs and insults which drive the wedge deeper. Given the make up and principles of the EU as mentioned earlier, I honestly don’t see with one direction of travel any way the EU can ever address that. Without such hope I admit the future looks pretty bleak. The Conservative GE ‘victory’ should never have happened. Brexit shouldn’t have happened. Trump shouldn’t have happened. But they did. So what is going on? The EU and Remainers have the high ground. They are derailing Brexit. They’ve destroyed the credibility of WTO and yet here we are with a wedge deeper than ever. So for all that high ground something has gone terribly wrong. I’ll admit I don’t have the answers but fortunately, it’s not up to me to find them.
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moose
Youth team substitute
Posts: 558
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Post by moose on May 24, 2019 11:34:19 GMT
Cambcam - you may think me naive for asking this, but how much of people’s pre-referendum unhappiness do you think was a direct or indirect consequence of the UK being a member of the EU?
Given a decade of austerity, wages stagnating, rising job insecurity (due to zero-hours contracts), etc., there was (and still is) a lot to be unhappy about. But what proportion of that do you think was the result of EU membership? I’m not seeking to defend the EU and clearly it was a proportion, but my question is “how much?”.
My personal theory (which may, again, be naive) is that people were unhappy about a lot of things, but that the majority of these were not related to EU membership. However, if you can’t envisage Brexit making your life any worse, then you’ll probably vote for it on the basis that it represents a change from the status quo. Plus, in a vote done by proportional representation, an individual’s vote has more bearing than it would in a GE context.
I completely accept that many people will have considered the issue in a lot of detail before casting their vote, but it is easy to imagine that several others would simply have asked themselves “how can things get any worse?”. If that were the case, then much blame lies with the Remain camp for not putting their case across more clearly and forcefully.
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Post by jimbo8082 on May 24, 2019 16:39:46 GMT
When listening to interviews with leading Pro-leavers in the run up to the referendum in 2016, again and again it was stated that continued membership of the Single market would be a priority. These same people now state they want to leave on WTO terms.
I'm guessing those on this messageboard who wish to leave on WTO terms are non-working. Because if you honestly welcome that scenario you are literally turkeys voting for Christmas.
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cambcam
Reserve team substitute
Posts: 2,590
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Post by cambcam on May 24, 2019 19:04:58 GMT
Cambcam - you may think me naive for asking this, but how much of people’s pre-referendum unhappiness do you think was a direct or indirect consequence of the UK being a member of the EU? Given a decade of austerity, wages stagnating, rising job insecurity (due to zero-hours contracts), etc., there was (and still is) a lot to be unhappy about. But what proportion of that do you think was the result of EU membership? I’m not seeking to defend the EU and clearly it was a proportion, but my question is “how much?”. My personal theory (which may, again, be naive) is that people were unhappy about a lot of things, but that the majority of these were not related to EU membership. However, if you can’t envisage Brexit making your life any worse, then you’ll probably vote for it on the basis that it represents a change from the status quo. Plus, in a vote done by proportional representation, an individual’s vote has more bearing than it would in a GE context. I completely accept that many people will have considered the issue in a lot of detail before casting their vote, but it is easy to imagine that several others would simply have asked themselves “how can things get any worse?”. If that were the case, then much blame lies with the Remain camp for not putting their case across more clearly and forcefully. Moose, that is a very, very good question. I’ve always said mass Eastern European migration came at just the wrong time. The ‘great British worker’ (whatever that is) had seen their terms and conditions deteriorate over many years. The seeds of that had been set decades earlier. That migration allowed companies to reduce costs and remain competitive in a global market place. Or did it? That migration also allowed companies to exploit the skewed supply and demand and drive people into the ground and have a rapid acceleration of a trend that was already happening. It was inevitable ‘the great British worker’ would feel they were going backwards. Add to the fact the landscape was changing rapidly with the massive population increases (yes, the schools, doctors waiting rooms etc) housing in desperately short supply and getting further out of reach by the day. Many migrants copped the backlash for this and none of it is their fault. But, things are worse, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind about that. Never mind the decade you speak about, what about 15, 20, 30 years before that? The roots of all this go back way beyond ten years. Reducing costs and introducing flexible working to remain competitive in a global market (also known as exploiting a fortunate situation to maximise profit) has brought us here. Something has gone very, very wrong. People working like slaves with crap terms and conditions is something no one envisaged. If someone had told me as a young man that one day we’d have people on zero hours contracts with no rights whatsoever you’d have looked at them as though they’d just arrived from Mars. Telling people the EU and open borders will make that better just doesn’t wash I’m afraid. Taxing Starbucks or bankers bonuses to pay for this was nonsense and pissing in the wind. Much of that is probably more to do with the manifestation of capitalism as much as anything else (cue Brother Carnage). Yes the EU is doing some good work in employment law, workers rights etc, but is not able to address the slide or provide answers. Expansion, more open borders, a further increase in population and a cycle of even more cheap labour to fuel that even greater population is a one way ticket to disaster. It’s no wonder on that basis at least people want change and that has to start with control. As previously mentioned, the EU has only one direction of travel. From my standpoint at least, for all it’s advantages it is ultimately unable to stop the problems it is creating and that will ultimately be its downfall. I really don’t think generally Brexiteers voted Leave with any certainty whatsoever things would be better. They voted Leave because they were unhappy with the EU and that with a Brexit things might just be better. It’s a gamble many were, and still are, willing to take. Anyway, just one persons opinion but might as well tell it as I see it. Cheers, Cam.
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