lesj
Reserve team substitute
Posts: 2,590
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Post by lesj on Mar 2, 2020 20:54:59 GMT
Having Just watched the BBC programme on Coronavirus it's worrying just how serious that it can get.
Obviously saving lives is the most important but it is also worrying the things it can effect.
Apart from holidays and airline travel, the amount of things we get from China is enormous. even things such as Tea
I wasn't aware that China is the biggest producer of tea in the world
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Post by Jerry1971 on Mar 3, 2020 9:59:56 GMT
I think some balance is needed here. Clearly the World is facing a virus which hasn't been seen before (was it a lab creation in China as some wags are speculating?), but the evidence to date suggests thankfully that the death rate from Covid-19 is incredibly low. What is known is that those deaths which have been recorded are more than likely caused at least in part by Covid-19, so the death rate figure is probably accurate, but what is not known is just how many people have got it and have either fully recovered or who have had little worse than a heavy cold or normal flu like symptoms. I'd suggest that the answer to that is in the hundreds of thousands around the World, and that as a society we simply just don't know. Hence, where people have been tested positive, the death rates are being calculated against the number of positive diagnoses and not necessarily against the number of people who actually have had, or have got the Virus.
Seasonal flu allegedly kills a minimum of 291,000 up to a maximum of 646,000 people per year (states MedicineNet) and affects millions of us every year. Whilst it is clear that Covid-19 will continue to spread and will inevitably be the cause of many more deaths, the levels of panic being fuelled by main stream media and on social media each and every hour of the day at present are probably disproportionate in the grand scheme of things. In turn, media frenzy (and that really is what it is at present) is forcing Governments into restrictions and forward planning which are probably way wide of what is really needed, which ultimately is a continued focus on hygiene and sensible containment measures, at least until the genuine impacts are properly known at a scientific level.
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Post by mike_CUFC on Mar 3, 2020 10:54:46 GMT
Spot on Jerry. Whilst no doubt it is a virus that is mutating and has caused a number of deaths, the media is massively exaggerating it to almost induce panic buying. They did the same with SARS back in 2008 (which admittedly did have quite a high mortality rate). Worst case figures put the mortality rate of Covid-19 at 2% although it is almost certainly far lower and probably not on a too dissimilar level to influenza. Masks have sold out yet all scientists have said these will have no effect on avoiding Covid-19, basic hygiene (as is the case for avoiding things like the common cold) is the easiest way of avoiding it spreading. The fact that papers like the Daily Mail spout headline news such as 'cases soar' when it jumped from 25 to 39 cases highlights this. Shops in Birmingham have run out of hygiene products! On the basis of 39 people out of a population of 70 odd million, classic social media over reaction along with the mainstream media making a far bigger deal than it actually is. Yes it is a concern, and yes we should be careful. But we are not about to experience some zombie style apocalypse that wipes out human kind!
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Post by kentishu on Mar 3, 2020 11:39:37 GMT
I actually agree with Jerry on something! (except the casual reference to it all possibly being a Chinese plot, I may as well say it could have been planted by Trump in to China, the comment is just as valid, but less dangerous as the UCL student from Singapore has just found out).
As far as I can tell, for most people it's business as usual and no one is avoiding crowds (except Dylan apparently).
My only cautionary note is that with the media crying wolf so often, will we spot the real killer bug should it ever arrive?
Kentish
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Mark of Carnage
Reserve team substitute
Responsibility, Resilience, Respect
Posts: 2,558
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Post by Mark of Carnage on Mar 3, 2020 13:47:10 GMT
We mustn't downplay this. 1% mortality could kill up to 1/2 million in the UK alone. Compare that to an average death rate of 600 (sometimes as high as 20,000) from seasonal flu each year. it's been 100 years since we had a tsunami flu hit us. As an efficient virus, this one may not be anywhere near as deadly as SARS and MERS but is likely that several multiples more will die from this than died from Spanish Flu 100 years ago simply because while that killed 2% there were less people on the planet. There are many millions in the UK alone that are vulnerable to direct impact from this virus. For those over 80 or with some underlying health conditions the mortality rate appears to be significantly higher than 1%. Then there is the economic impact, loss of earnings and service provision that will have a devastating effect on the lives of many. We should brace ourselves.
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Post by madmarvin on Mar 3, 2020 14:00:59 GMT
Spot on Jerry. Whilst no doubt it is a virus that is mutating and has caused a number of deaths, the media is massively exaggerating it to almost induce panic buying. They did the same with SARS back in 2008 (which admittedly did have quite a high mortality rate). Worst case figures put the mortality rate of Covid-19 at 2% although it is almost certainly far lower and probably not on a too dissimilar level to influenza. Masks have sold out yet all scientists have said these will have no effect on avoiding Covid-19, basic hygiene (as is the case for avoiding things like the common cold) is the easiest way of avoiding it spreading. The fact that papers like the Daily Mail spout headline news such as 'cases soar' when it jumped from 25 to 39 cases highlights this. Shops in Birmingham have run out of hygiene products! On the basis of 39 people out of a population of 70 odd million, classic social media over reaction along with the mainstream media making a far bigger deal than it actually is. Yes it is a concern, and yes we should be careful. But we are not about to experience some zombie style apocalypse that wipes out human kind! SARS was actually 2002/03. I remember it well as I went to Hong Kong in 2004 when they were still pretty concerned about it as the mortality rate was just under 10%. It was swine flu back in 2009 and the mortality rate was ridiculously low. I am not concerned by the current pandemic. What I am concerned with though is our highly irresponsible media whipping people up into a frenzy. If you scare the people enough then we *will* have a problem when the panic buying starts. This version is infinitely more contagious but appears to be less deadly. The amount of unreported caess where a full recovery is made will indoubtedly put the mortality rate lower than it currently is. Influenza pandemics have been around for over a century (that I'm aware of) and until a mutated version starts putting bodies in the streets then I won't be running screaming up the street anytime soon. *Edit* I'm not saying we shouldn't take sensible precautions to limit the spread as much as possible but we need to face facts. This virus is going to run it's course just like all the others.
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Post by Jerry1971 on Mar 3, 2020 14:18:55 GMT
I completely agree Mark (and Kentish - finally :-) !) but it is one thing not to downplay the risk, but my concern is that media outlets are beginning to write in such a way that it is almost inevitable that the apocalypse is nigh. Clearly there is going to be a hefty economic impact, and we can already see that with BA and Ryanair slashing flights as they have - partially in response to the incredible numbers of events, conferences and general business travel needs being cancelled at very short notice. What is perhaps sly is that Ryanair and BA have both cancelled from the 16th March onwards, meaning that they do not need to pay out compensation under EU261 flight compensation rules for which global pandemics are not seen as an extraordinary circumstance (extraordinarily!!) therefore allowing them to avoid payments with fourteen days notice. I think the travel industry as a whole is going to have a disastrous year, and there will inevitably be casualties.
I remember clearly the H1N1 outbreak in 2009, largely as it coincided with the birth of my son and my wife and I were understandably quite worried about it. I also remember people resorting to measures of utter stupidity, such as buying and selling illicitly obtained antibiotics in supermarket car parks. There was even a story in the CEN about a drive by sale of antibiotics in the Milton Tescos car park, involving a Vauxhall and a bloke wearing JD Sports latest fashions and I remember groaning to myself as I read it. I sincerely hope we don't see that now, although the worldwide mask shortage and everwhere selling out of alcohol hand gel suggests that we are not far off.
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Mark of Carnage
Reserve team substitute
Responsibility, Resilience, Respect
Posts: 2,558
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Post by Mark of Carnage on Mar 3, 2020 15:42:10 GMT
everwhere selling out of alcohol Right i'm off to the supermarket to stock up with some essentials. Brb 1st rule of capitalism 'who panics first wins'
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Post by madmarvin on Mar 3, 2020 15:46:43 GMT
everwhere selling out of alcohol Right i'm off to the supermarket to stock up with some essentials. Brb 1st rule of capitalism 'who panics first wins' Well there's no toilet roll as I've bought it all
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Post by Jerry1971 on Mar 3, 2020 16:08:37 GMT
everwhere selling out of alcohol Right i'm off to the supermarket to stock up with some essentials. Brb 1st rule of capitalism 'who panics first wins' Damn! I need to be a Trot in the next life!!
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neilmc4
Youth team substitute
Posts: 583
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Post by neilmc4 on Mar 3, 2020 17:52:23 GMT
On a more serious note........ Official WHO fatality rate for coronavirus currently 3.4% IMHO the real worry is not the number of deaths (as so rightly pointed out above flu kills hundreds of thousands every year) but the damage that may be caused to economies , businesses and thus employees and consumers the world over. Global Financial Crash II anybody........?
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Post by madmarvin on Mar 3, 2020 18:47:39 GMT
On a more serious note........ Official WHO fatality rate for coronavirus currently 3.4% IMHO the real worry is not the number of deaths (as so rightly pointed out above flu kills hundreds of thousands every year) but the damage that may be caused to economies , businesses and thus employees and consumers the world over. Global Financial Crash II anybody........? The mortality rates are worth noting for those inside and outside China. Inside China the rate stands at 3.63% Outside of China it is currently 1.45% All subject to change admittedly but the fact that the rest of the world is now prepared will hopefully help the rates stay low.
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Mark of Carnage
Reserve team substitute
Responsibility, Resilience, Respect
Posts: 2,558
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Post by Mark of Carnage on Mar 3, 2020 20:55:48 GMT
On a more serious note........ Official WHO fatality rate for coronavirus currently 3.4% IMHO the real worry is not the number of deaths (as so rightly pointed out above f lu kills hundreds of thousands every year) but the damage that may be caused to economies , businesses and thus employees and consumers the world over. Global Financial Crash II anybody........? Agree with you on the potential economic impact but have to say that figure of several hundred thousand every year is worldwide seasonal flu deaths. COVID-19 might kill several hundred thousand just in the UK. 1% of world population is 80 million so that is around 150 times higher than season flu mortality rates. For the sake of some perspective 80 million is more people than all the people who died in world war two. Whatever way you look at these kind of numbers represent an awful lot of people and potentially a catastrophic world event. Government needs to react in a way that minimises the impact with massive cash injections into services not least the NHS but also to individuals and businesses at their time of need. The benefit system for example is not set up to help in this kind of crisis particularly for the employed and self employed and over the coming months their will need to be decisive action at both national and local government level if we are to get through this with resiliance and dignity.
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Post by somersetewe on Mar 3, 2020 20:57:20 GMT
Actually the mortality rates are a concern as the number of people who could be infected could be so high. Percentage wise it might be low, but on absolute numbers it could be huge.
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Post by Mark Peters’ Bonce of Power on Mar 4, 2020 0:18:28 GMT
There’s a lot of speculation about how serious or not this whole thing is, but something I keep reading again and again is that the mortality rate is probably significantly less than it is thought to be. The mortality rate is, (obviously) established by comparing the number of confirmed cases and confirmed deaths. However what that can’t take into account, is how many cases simply haven’t been reported and have been recovered from without a second thought. The virus and it’s symptoms are so similar to’normal’ flu, that it’s reasonable to assume that there have been significantly more cases than will have been reported, so as such the real terms mortality rate will be significantly lower.
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