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Post by kentishu on Sept 21, 2020 17:03:54 GMT
Playing devils advocate a bit, if people were fined £1000 for catching Covid-19, do you think that would change behaviours (in terms of trying not to catch it) at all? People in some jobs would be exempt of course.
Kentish
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Mark of Carnage
Reserve team substitute
Responsibility, Resilience, Respect
Posts: 2,558
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Post by Mark of Carnage on Sept 21, 2020 17:19:18 GMT
I've often said that 97% of rules are made for the 3% that are likely to break them and the other 97% have to suffer because of them. It's probably about 3% that are idiots breaking the covic rules that is prolonging this pandemic, and again the rest have to suffer because of them. I'd be surprised if much more than half of us are following most of the rules. There is an inevitability about Autumn and increases in the numbers infected. I also suspect we came out of lockdown a couple of weeks too soon and there is a price to pay for that. Once London looked like it was doing ok Boris decided to open the pubs. At that time the number of infected in the north west of England in particular was way above the national average but as per usual our London centric government ignored the north and carried on regardless. I'm expecting a national lockdown for just a couple of weeks in mid November so Boris can open the pubs and be feted as the man who saved our Christmas rather than as another Oliver Cromwell.
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Mark of Carnage
Reserve team substitute
Responsibility, Resilience, Respect
Posts: 2,558
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Post by Mark of Carnage on Sept 21, 2020 17:39:24 GMT
The only way to stop a virus this contagious from spreading is to develop population-level (herd) immunity. That can be achieved by a vaccine or by enough people getting natural immunity from its spread (as appears to have happened in Sweden). You can practise social distancing (jury is still out on the effectiveness of masks but the trajectory of the virus has been the same in countries that have not made mask-wearing mandatory as those that have) and this may slow down the rate of transmission but it will keep coming back unless you want the whole country to social distance and live restricted life until a vaccine (at the expense of significant damage to the economy). No way around it the virus is too out there now. There is no evidence that natural immunity lasts more than a few months in most people. I guess for individuals it would depend on how significant the immune reaction was and the duration of the antibody response. It is probable that a vaccine that stimulated a T cell response as most do that are being trialed would last longer than natural immunity but we still don't know how safe these vaccines are. If we get a vaccine we can have annual booster shots but until then the term herd immunity makes me shudder. This is like the common cold. You can catch it again and again. We are only 6 months in. Let's not steer a different course just yet.
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Post by ftg1982 on Sept 21, 2020 18:17:35 GMT
The only way to stop a virus this contagious from spreading is to develop population-level (herd) immunity. That can be achieved by a vaccine or by enough people getting natural immunity from its spread (as appears to have happened in Sweden). You can practise social distancing (jury is still out on the effectiveness of masks but the trajectory of the virus has been the same in countries that have not made mask-wearing mandatory as those that have) and this may slow down the rate of transmission but it will keep coming back unless you want the whole country to social distance and live restricted life until a vaccine (at the expense of significant damage to the economy). No way around it the virus is too out there now. There is no evidence that natural immunity lasts more than a few months in most people. I guess for individuals it would depend on how significant the immune reaction was and the duration of the antibody response. It is probable that a vaccine that stimulated a T cell response as most do that are being trialed would last longer than natural immunity but we still don't know how safe these vaccines are. If we get a vaccine we can have annual booster shots but until then the term herd immunity makes me shudder. This is like the common cold. You can catch it again and again. We are only 6 months in. Let's not steer a different course just yet. "There is no evidence that natural immunity lasts more than a few months in most people." Wrong. There have only been a couple of people who are supposed to have caught it twice. Both of these were asymptomatic. Assuming they were not false positives then you can be sure their T-cells were responding to keep the virus at bay. You mentioned T-cells in vaccine research but it is increasingly clear they also provide natural immunity. Many people have cross-reactivity from other coronaviruses that gives them pre-existing immunity to Covid. This was suggested by nobel prize winning scientist Michael Levitt who modeled the trajectory of early coronavirus outbreaks (including countries that did not lockdown) and showed that growth of the virus was not exponential but rather a Gompertz curve (so it rises quickly and then starts falling steadily). This happens because the virus can spread no more as sufficient people have immunity. Empirical scientific studies are starting to prove T-cell immunity provides robust long-lasting protection from Covid after exposure even in those who had mild symptoms and also explains why Sweden is not seeing spikes in cases whereas all other European countries are: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.11.20171843v2?fbclid=IwAR01WLG8KDFwXVJPddyZ9waVqrW-OBXcFD_eOA--jxhbxVyMRFDIlbCVfBYscitechdaily.com/scientists-uncover-evidence-that-a-level-of-pre-existing-covid-19-sars-cov-2-immunity-is-present-in-the-general-population/?fbclid=IwAR1hEUiNAtqT2E6BYiI-yWk-QsIoHX64vKZNQZP4u2fV8CJhnYPYQpVm1sUwww.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)31008-4?fbclid=IwAR2ALL7AvNnGJMu4a5BC_7iU2qknyl17I6ldhRuJwbCEcfJuUd4209OY_wo
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Mark of Carnage
Reserve team substitute
Responsibility, Resilience, Respect
Posts: 2,558
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Post by Mark of Carnage on Sept 21, 2020 18:31:47 GMT
There is no evidence that natural immunity lasts more than a few months in most people. I guess for individuals it would depend on how significant the immune reaction was and the duration of the antibody response. It is probable that a vaccine that stimulated a T cell response as most do that are being trialed would last longer than natural immunity but we still don't know how safe these vaccines are. If we get a vaccine we can have annual booster shots but until then the term herd immunity makes me shudder. This is like the common cold. You can catch it again and again. We are only 6 months in. Let's not steer a different course just yet. "There is no evidence that natural immunity lasts more than a few months in most people." Wrong. There have only been a couple of people who are supposed to have caught it twice. Both of these were asymptomatic. Assuming they were not false positives then you can be sure their T-cells were responding to keep the virus at bay. You mentioned T-cells in vaccine research but it is increasingly clear they also provide natural immunity. Many people have cross-reactivity from other coronaviruses that gives them pre-existing immunity to Covid. This was suggested by nobel prize winning scientist Michael Levitt who modeled the trajectory of early coronavirus outbreaks (including countries that did not lockdown) and showed that growth of the virus was not exponential but rather a Gompertz curve (so it rises quickly and then starts falling steadily). This happens because the virus can spread no more as sufficient people have immunity. Empirical scientific studies are starting to prove T-cell immunity provides robust long-lasting protection from Covid after exposure even in those who had mild symptoms and also explains why Sweden is not seeing spikes in cases whereas all other European countries are: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.11.20171843v2?fbclid=IwAR01WLG8KDFwXVJPddyZ9waVqrW-OBXcFD_eOA--jxhbxVyMRFDIlbCVfBYscitechdaily.com/scientists-uncover-evidence-that-a-level-of-pre-existing-covid-19-sars-cov-2-immunity-is-present-in-the-general-population/?fbclid=IwAR1hEUiNAtqT2E6BYiI-yWk-QsIoHX64vKZNQZP4u2fV8CJhnYPYQpVm1sUwww.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)31008-4?fbclid=IwAR2ALL7AvNnGJMu4a5BC_7iU2qknyl17I6ldhRuJwbCEcfJuUd4209OY_wo That is all very positive but doesn't mean I'm wrong. Let's stick with what are doing at least a while longer and slow the spread.
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Post by svh on Sept 21, 2020 19:10:17 GMT
Half of Leyton Orients team test positive for Covid after Spurs offered to pay for the tests. Tomorrows game against them in the FA Cup now in doubt.
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utopia
Reserve team regular
Posts: 3,065
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Post by utopia on Sept 21, 2020 19:22:55 GMT
Anyone know the situation in China where this is all supposed to have started? With the obvious caveat that you never know if they are telling the truth. Unlike Johnson and Co who always tell the truth! The difference is that you haven't just lost all your social credit points for that comment. The CCP is evil. At least we still have mostly free speech and can disagree on this and other topics.
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utopia
Reserve team regular
Posts: 3,065
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Post by utopia on Sept 21, 2020 19:27:35 GMT
Half of Leyton Orients team test positive for Covid after Spurs offered to pay for the tests. Tomorrows game against them in the FA Cup now in doubt. You've lost me there. FA Cup?
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Post by kentishu on Sept 21, 2020 19:31:42 GMT
There is no evidence that natural immunity lasts more than a few months in most people. I guess for individuals it would depend on how significant the immune reaction was and the duration of the antibody response. It is probable that a vaccine that stimulated a T cell response as most do that are being trialed would last longer than natural immunity but we still don't know how safe these vaccines are. If we get a vaccine we can have annual booster shots but until then the term herd immunity makes me shudder. This is like the common cold. You can catch it again and again. We are only 6 months in. Let's not steer a different course just yet. "There is no evidence that natural immunity lasts more than a few months in most people." Wrong. There have only been a couple of people who are supposed to have caught it twice. Both of these were asymptomatic. Assuming they were not false positives then you can be sure their T-cells were responding to keep the virus at bay. You mentioned T-cells in vaccine research but it is increasingly clear they also provide natural immunity. Many people have cross-reactivity from other coronaviruses that gives them pre-existing immunity to Covid. This was suggested by nobel prize winning scientist Michael Levitt who modeled the trajectory of early coronavirus outbreaks (including countries that did not lockdown) and showed that growth of the virus was not exponential but rather a Gompertz curve (so it rises quickly and then starts falling steadily). This happens because the virus can spread no more as sufficient people have immunity. Empirical scientific studies are starting to prove T-cell immunity provides robust long-lasting protection from Covid after exposure even in those who had mild symptoms and also explains why Sweden is not seeing spikes in cases whereas all other European countries are: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.11.20171843v2?fbclid=IwAR01WLG8KDFwXVJPddyZ9waVqrW-OBXcFD_eOA--jxhbxVyMRFDIlbCVfBYscitechdaily.com/scientists-uncover-evidence-that-a-level-of-pre-existing-covid-19-sars-cov-2-immunity-is-present-in-the-general-population/?fbclid=IwAR1hEUiNAtqT2E6BYiI-yWk-QsIoHX64vKZNQZP4u2fV8CJhnYPYQpVm1sUwww.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)31008-4?fbclid=IwAR2ALL7AvNnGJMu4a5BC_7iU2qknyl17I6ldhRuJwbCEcfJuUd4209OY_wo If I understand it correctly, herd immunity relies on three key assumptions. Firstly, that some people are already immune. Secondly, that getting the disease makes you immune. And thirdly, that most people are bound to get the disease eventually. All of these appear unproven at the moment, and the consequences of being wrong are huge. However, even accepting these assumptions, what I really don't get is why it would make sense to get to the position of herd immunity quickly. That seems to imply its fine for people to catch the disease as then nearly everyone will soon be immune, and the few that aren't won't catch it. But surely millions of high risk people would catch it before herd immunity was achieved, and there would be 100k's of deaths? If that is correct, I think I'll continue to minimise the chance of catching the disease until everyone else is immune or dead. You can call me selfish (or something worse) if you like. Kentish
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utopia
Reserve team regular
Posts: 3,065
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Post by utopia on Sept 21, 2020 19:33:39 GMT
The only way to stop a virus this contagious from spreading is to develop population-level (herd) immunity. That can be achieved by a vaccine or by enough people getting natural immunity from its spread (as appears to have happened in Sweden). You can practise social distancing (jury is still out on the effectiveness of masks but the trajectory of the virus has been the same in countries that have not made mask-wearing mandatory as those that have) and this may slow down the rate of transmission but it will keep coming back unless you want the whole country to social distance and live restricted life until a vaccine (at the expense of significant damage to the economy). No way around it the virus is too out there now. There is no evidence that natural immunity lasts more than a few months in most people. I guess for individuals it would depend on how significant the immune reaction was and the duration of the antibody response. It is probable that a vaccine that stimulated a T cell response as most do that are being trialed would last longer than natural immunity but we still don't know how safe these vaccines are. If we get a vaccine we can have annual booster shots but until then the term herd immunity makes me shudder. This is like the common cold. You can catch it again and again. We are only 6 months in. Let's not steer a different course just yet. One thing with Boris Johnson is that he won't want his legacy to be locking people down. The common cold thing is a misnomer. There are over 200 viruses that cause the common cold. It is caused by several different Corona viruses but mostly rhinoviruses. You do get immunity to individual viruses but it is so common because there are so many that you can catch. For most people covid 19 will be once only.
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Post by Exiled on Sept 21, 2020 19:50:32 GMT
There is no evidence that natural immunity lasts more than a few months in most people. I guess for individuals it would depend on how significant the immune reaction was and the duration of the antibody response. It is probable that a vaccine that stimulated a T cell response as most do that are being trialed would last longer than natural immunity but we still don't know how safe these vaccines are. If we get a vaccine we can have annual booster shots but until then the term herd immunity makes me shudder. This is like the common cold. You can catch it again and again. We are only 6 months in. Let's not steer a different course just yet. One thing with Boris Johnson is that he won't want his legacy to be locking people down. The common cold thing is a misnomer. There are over 200 viruses that cause the common cold. It is caused by several different Corona viruses but mostly rhinoviruses. You do get immunity to individual viruses but it is so common because there are so many that you can catch. For most people covid 19 will be once only. I don;t think herd immunity is a serious option. It needs about 70% of the population to have caught the virus. That would be a lot of deaths and lot of people seriously ill (a lot of people have ongoing health problems because of corona virus). We just need to control our behaviour until a vaccine is ready. We had the virus under reasonable control, and have been too lax in my opinion. They pretty much eradicated the virus in China, surely we could have learnt some lessons from them as they had it first.
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imp566
Cult hero
Posts: 16,058
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Post by imp566 on Sept 21, 2020 20:34:18 GMT
Half of Leyton Orients team test positive for Covid after Spurs offered to pay for the tests. Tomorrows game against them in the FA Cup now in doubt. You've lost me there. FA Cup? He means the League Cup of course.
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Post by abington2 on Sept 21, 2020 20:49:57 GMT
It says EFL Clubs no longer have to test squad and staff on a weekly basis. Anyone know what happens with us?
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utopia
Reserve team regular
Posts: 3,065
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Post by utopia on Sept 21, 2020 21:06:30 GMT
One thing with Boris Johnson is that he won't want his legacy to be locking people down. The common cold thing is a misnomer. There are over 200 viruses that cause the common cold. It is caused by several different Corona viruses but mostly rhinoviruses. You do get immunity to individual viruses but it is so common because there are so many that you can catch. For most people covid 19 will be once only. I don;t think herd immunity is a serious option. It needs about 70% of the population to have caught the virus. That would be a lot of deaths and lot of people seriously ill (a lot of people have ongoing health problems because of corona virus). We just need to control our behaviour until a vaccine is ready. We had the virus under reasonable control, and have been too lax in my opinion. They pretty much eradicated the virus in China, surely we could have learnt some lessons from them as they had it first. Herd immunity is the only option. The question is how we get there. Immunisation works to create herd immunity. 70% might be an accurate figure but it depends on the transmissibility of the virus. The levels of death now are very low. Infection rates are quite high. This indicates that either (a) levels of infection were much higher in the Spring to lead to the much higher number of deaths or (b) the virus has mutated to be less deadly. As only the hospitalised were being tested to start with it is a certainty that far more were infected than was known. Even now people struggle to get tests so there must be more people with the virus than captured in official figures. Tests for antibodies are unreliable as the body has other ways to fight off the virus. We will never know how many had the virus or when. Your opinion is that we haven't done enough but mine is that we should have focussed far more on protecting the vulnerable. Perhaps doing more to encourage the overweight to improve their health too. Has China eradicated the virus? What journalists are on the ground there now? There is next to no verifiable news coming out of China. We have no idea how bad it was there in March and no idea of what it is like there now.
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Post by haptogob on Sept 22, 2020 0:34:22 GMT
If someone in a shop isn't wearing a mask, don't go near them. It really is that simple. I think we have discovered the way never to catch any illness. Avoid all people all the time! That's the way to avoid STDs as well: keep your pants on ay all time!
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