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Post by mike_CUFC on Sept 21, 2020 8:18:15 GMT
Can we survive financially and see the season out without taking any money on the gate? Dunno but I'd be really interested in seeing what we get from ifollow compared to what we made from traditional ticket sales. I guess our match day costs are lower but then we're not making money on programmes, food & drink & hospitality etc. Ian Mather posted on Twitter that for the Carlisle game 427 match passes were bought in addition to the 1,500 or so given out to ST holders. With so many people watching games with someone else and only needing to buy 1 pass that doesn't surprise me but that level of income is a big drop from normal matchdays. Even if you assumed that hospitality, food, programmes etc is covered by the savings in staff costs (no idea if that is remotely accurate by the way) then 427 match passes at an average of say £7 (after iFollow take there 20%) is a little under £3k. Our average attendance was what, around 3,500 ish last season with 2,200 ST holders. So 1,300 people at an average of £15 a ticket is just shy of £20k so just on attendance alone we are losing at least £15k per home game. Can't believe Barry can cover that in addition to the ongoing losses we make each season. And iFollow away games only create money for the club when over 500 match passes are sold so that is going to be minimal revenue for the club too. I can't see how any 'non-hobby' clubs will make it through the whole season if crowds aren't allowed back in.
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Post by Jerry1971 on Sept 21, 2020 8:24:39 GMT
Where do we start with this?
False Positives: Believed to be approx 1% of tests according to Hancock last week. If you do 200,000 tests a day and 1% are false positives, 2,000 are added to the positive test numbers, every day. Are the numbers even real?
Mortality Rates: Suggest this year is not massively different from other recent years.
NHS: Didn't collapse in wave one, and is less than likely to collapse in wave two given that NHS managers have now had six months to iron out the clear issues within their own procurement processes and strategic planning.
Economy: Looks to be recovering, particularly in areas such as retail with a sharp V shape dip and recovery over the past few months. Some areas, such as hospitality, aviation etc, still decimated.
WE DO NOT NEED ANOTHER LOCKDOWN.
We have to learn to live with this virus. Some clearly don't want to learn to live with it, and that is the challenge for Government to address. For what its worth, we need to be targeting the cause of the current spike, exactly as is being done in local lockdown areas, and this needs to be expanded. For me, a national hospitality curfew at 2200, and an increase in the drinking age to 25 would be good places to start, alongside closing down places of worship, which are as much of a problem in the UK as they have been all across the World (in every denomination in case anyone thinks I'm targetting). Clear support needed for outlets who clearly and sensibly could not re-open just now, such as theatres/concert venues/nightclubs.
Once again on Saturday night I drove past Revolution and the Regal, and once again, crowds of kids trying to get in, not social distancing or giving any thought to Covid whatsoever. That is the place to start when trying to control this pandemic.
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Post by treadmore on Sept 21, 2020 8:27:40 GMT
Thanks Mike - really surprised that the number of ifollow purchases is just in the hundreds. I (naively!) assumed it would be in the thousands. So yes no idea how clubs will survive long term on those numbers.
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Post by mikelan on Sept 21, 2020 8:34:17 GMT
Thank for your encouragement and holding that door ajar. I'm feeling quite down this morning and am hoping some of us may be able to attend a live match this weekend but I expect live sport to be a csualty of whatever scheme the government has dreamt up to try and head off this second spike that is clearly on the way, mybe we will hear something today. This is reality as it is at the moment. being starved of something that is valued. perhaps a zoom support meeting for those feeling the loss of live football.
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Post by mike_CUFC on Sept 21, 2020 8:34:56 GMT
Thanks Mike - really surprised that the number of ifollow purchases is just in the hundreds. I (naively!) assumed it would be in the thousands. So yes no idea how clubs will survive long term on those numbers. I initially thought it would be a lot more too but then looking at pictures on social media you can see why, majority 2-3 people watching a game on one pass means that perhaps 1,200-1,300 people watched the game on those 427 match passes so with the ST holders that's around 3,000 which in the current economical climate is probably about where I'd expect us to be. But yes completely unsustainable in the long term...
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Bendigeidfran
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Post by Bendigeidfran on Sept 21, 2020 8:43:56 GMT
Yeah there's been 3 of us watching every game so far. If we were at the Abbey, it would've been around £60 on tickets, plus food, programme, tat from the shop. Our £100 spend has reduced to a tenner. Good for our pockets, not so much the club.
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jwills61
Youth team star
Up The U's
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Post by jwills61 on Sept 21, 2020 9:15:46 GMT
Yeah, when I saw the amount of iFollow purchases I did immediately worry for how long lower league clubs could be sustainable on that income.
Ended up buying Saturday’s game out of guilt even though I wasn’t able to watch it. Can almost feel the desperation in the club tweets promoting it. But you know what, I’ll happily chuck a tenner at the club and not watch it if it means we win 5-0.
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Post by Mike Osbourn on Sept 21, 2020 10:10:39 GMT
I think it is wrong to conclude the mortality rate is as low as 0.07% ths early in the pandemic. We simply don't know but I think closer to 0.5% is far more likely to be apparent in several years time when the data becomes clearer. Of course the hope is for a vaccine but even if we have that, the mortality rate will surely be far higher than 0.07%. I'm not sure I follow your logic. During the first wave/height of the pandemic, in this country we were only testing patients for covid who were admitted to hospital. So mortality rates (i.e. the absolute numbers dying as a percentage of detected cases) would have been artifically high, surely, given that anyone asymptomatic or not admitted to hospital but mildly symptomatic would not appear in the official infection stats. In truth, there were probably a lot more people that had covid in the first wave than appeared in the stats because the testing capacity wasn't there to pick up the less severe cases in the wider community. So, as crude as it seems, if we had 50,000 deaths from 500,000 reported cases (plucking figures to make a point) at that time, which equates to 1% mortality rate, chances are we had significantly more non-reported cases which would drive the mortality rate down not up. I'm not belittling the effect of this virus by any stretch, but we all need to think about how we interpret the information being made publicly available for ourselves, and not just accept extreme media interpretations. I think SVH said it earlier in this thread, and I agree with him, this Government seems to oscillate wildly in it's approach to this situation, without any obvious underpinning strategy (or at least not one readily visible - maybe that's even more scary - who's to say that they're not quite happy to create massive class divides at the same time as killing of huge chunks of the vulnerable/elderly) which is no good for society in general. Protecting the most vulnerable effectively should have been, and should continue to be, the number one objective. What we're seeing though is more or a less a total clusterf*ck that neither delivers that objective, or protect the wider economy/society from collateral effects of this situation.
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Post by ilovechadders on Sept 21, 2020 12:03:53 GMT
“So, as crude as it seems, if we had 50,000 deaths from 500,000 reported cases (plucking figures to make a point) at that time, which equates to 1% mortality rate, chances are we had significantly more non-reported cases which would drive the mortality rate down not up.”
10%?
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Post by Mike Osbourn on Sept 21, 2020 12:10:33 GMT
Good to see you spotted my typo. The figures are random anyway to make the point - the mortality rate being reported is not a true mortality rate as it doesn't account for undetected infections to set those against the number of deaths.
Add in that the deaths being reported are 'only' those where covid was a factor in the last 28 days, not necessarily 'the' cause of death, and things are even more opaque.
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Mark of Carnage
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Responsibility, Resilience, Respect
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Post by Mark of Carnage on Sept 21, 2020 12:47:48 GMT
I think it is wrong to conclude the mortality rate is as low as 0.07% ths early in the pandemic. We simply don't know but I think closer to 0.5% is far more likely to be apparent in several years time when the data becomes clearer. Of course the hope is for a vaccine but even if we have that, the mortality rate will surely be far higher than 0.07%. I'm not sure I follow your logic. I was simply stating an opinion that it is too early to conclude the mortality rate is 0.07%. I pointed out in my post why I think it is likely to be a fair bit higher than that figure. I hope I'm wrong. I thought the government figures from earlier had been adjusted but it is hard to keep up with it all. Either way no one's got a crystal ball but what we do know is that covid mortality rates in the over 75s are significantly higher the rest of the population and proportionally far more younger people are getting tests. Even if we have a vaccine it will take considerable time to vaccinate people.
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Mark of Carnage
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Post by Mark of Carnage on Sept 21, 2020 12:58:20 GMT
‘Your concern for the over 75’s does seem a tad disingenuous. I presume from your ‘flexing our muscles’ comment you are a support of the current political system and the current regime. A regime that, in the short term, allowed infected and untested people to return to care homes. In the long term has no real interest in a class of people are no longer productive and no use to the money making machine. I think that's the first time I've ever been accused of being a Tory.
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Post by kentishu on Sept 21, 2020 14:02:14 GMT
For what it's worth, I am also against another lockdown, as I was against the first.
What really annoys me is people suggesting that Covid-19 is somehow not a serious threat. The mortality rate once you have caught the disease is 5-10% at older ages. Quoting something much lower will cause people to think it's not a threat, and they will then take unnecessary risks.
The most important thing is to treat this as the killer that it is, and do everything not to catch the disease. That way you know you won't die. So wear masks (properly), keep your distance and avoid crowds, and wash/sanitise your hands immediately after touching something that could have the virus. That way you won't catch the disease, and you can carry on pretty much as normal. It's not that hard to do.
I'd go further and suggest that catching the disease should be a matter of personal shame and embarrassment - you are the people that are prolonging the problem for everyone else. That includes Johnson and the poster on this thread.
Kentish
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Wingco's Boy
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Post by Wingco's Boy on Sept 21, 2020 15:04:37 GMT
For what it's worth, I am also against another lockdown, as I was against the first. What really annoys me is people suggesting that Covid-19 is somehow not a serious threat. The mortality rate once you have caught the disease is 5-10% at older ages. Quoting something much lower will cause people to think it's not a threat, and they will then take unnecessary risks. The most important thing is to treat this as the killer that it is, and do everything not to catch the disease. That way you know you won't die. So wear masks (properly), keep your distance and avoid crowds, and wash/sanitise your hands immediately after touching something that could have the virus. That way you won't catch the disease, and you can carry on pretty much as normal. It's not that hard to do. I'd go further and suggest that catching the disease should be a matter of personal shame and embarrassment - you are the people that are prolonging the problem for everyone else. That includes Johnson and the poster on this thread. Kentish If I go into a shop wearing my mask - which I always do - and some discourteous arsehole who isn't wearing one decides to breathe in my face, how the f*ck is it my fault if I catch it? The mask is to protect others, not the wearer!
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Post by kentishu on Sept 21, 2020 15:13:52 GMT
If someone in a shop isn't wearing a mask, don't go near them. It really is that simple.
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